[SMM Analysis] Expected Tightening of Supply Coupled with Demand Support Sustains the Uptrend in Chrome Ore Prices

January 30, 2026 News:

This week, the latest quotation of 40-42% South African chrome concentrate from major overseas mines stands at $297 per ton, an increase of $10 month-on-month from January 22, equivalent to about 57-58 CNY per ton unit for domestic spot goods, basically at the same price level. The overseas chrome ore quotation has risen by nearly $40 per ton this month, providing support for domestic spot prices which have increased by 5 CNY per ton unit. Market bullish sentiment is strong, and the overall market maintains a firm operating trend.

On the demand side, the downstream stainless steel market has performed well recently, with prices breaking through multi-year highs and fluctuating in the range of 14,500-14,900 CNY per ton. The positive sentiment has transmitted upstream, leading to increased demand for ferrochrome and a consistently high operating rate, with winter stockpiling procurement demand for chrome ore. According to SMM statistics, China's high-carbon ferrochrome output in January 2026 edged down 0.83% month-on-month, yet remained at a historical high overall, driving the uptrend of chrome ore prices.

On the supply side, SMM data shows that the global total chrome ore shipments in January 2026 are expected to reach 2.45 million tons, a decrease of 14.74% month-on-month. South Africa has recently entered the rainy season, imposing certain restrictions on chrome ore mining and shipments, resulting in a slight contraction in supply. Meanwhile, South Africa's energy regulatory authority has approved a 35% electricity tariff reduction for Glencore and Samancor, effectively lowering ferrochrome production costs and stimulating the recovery of South Africa's ferrochrome industry. It is expected that South Africa's subsequent chrome ore exports will decline, leading to a tightening of chrome ore supply and supporting the firm and stable operation of chrome ore prices.